Industry Scoreboard
Tariffs create winners and losers across the American economy. For every steel mill that adds a shift, a car dealer lays off mechanics. For every textile factory that reopens, a retailer closes stores.
We analyzed 20 industries to determine which are genuinely benefiting from tariff protection and which are paying the price — in jobs, revenue, and competitiveness.
7
Industries Benefit
3
Mixed Impact
10
Industries Hurt
Net Jobs Impact
+100,000
Jobs gained (winners)
-568,000
Jobs lost (losers)
Net: -468,000 jobs
The economy loses more jobs than it gains
Winners
Industries gaining from tariff protection
Domestic Steel Production
tariff rate
25% Section 232 tariffs with no exemptions have boosted US steel mill utilization to 82%. Companies like Nucor and US Steel have expanded capacity and raised wages, though downstream users pay higher input costs.
Domestic Aluminum Smelting
tariff rate
Section 232 tariffs revived some US aluminum production. Century Aluminum reopened facilities, though the US still imports 75% of primary aluminum.
Domestic Auto Assembly (Existing)
tariff rate
25% auto tariffs incentivized reshoring. Toyota, Hyundai, and BMW expanded US plants. Existing domestic assemblers gained market share as import prices rose.
Domestic Furniture Manufacturing
tariff rate
Section 232 expansion to furniture in March 2026 gave domestic makers a major boost. North Carolina and Mississippi furniture factories restarting. Ashley Furniture expanding US production.
Domestic Semiconductor Fabs
tariff rate
CHIPS Act incentives plus tariffs on foreign chips accelerated TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, and Intel Ohio fabs. Massive construction and engineering job creation.
Domestic Textile & Apparel
tariff rate
High tariffs on imported clothing (40-54%) revived some US textile manufacturing. Reshoring to Carolinas, Georgia. But production costs remain higher than Asia.
Defense & Aerospace
tariff rate
Mostly exempt from tariffs. Benefiting from reshoring of critical supply chains and increased defense spending. Lockheed Martin, RTX expanding domestic production.
Losers
Industries paying the price
US Agriculture (Export-Dependent)
tariff rate
While US crops face no import tariffs, retaliatory tariffs from China (25%), EU (25%), Mexico (20%) have devastated exports. Soybean exports to China down 35%. Farm bankruptcies up 20%.
Retail & Consumer Goods
tariff rate
Retailers face massive cost increases on imported goods. Clothing up 30-50%, electronics up 20-40%. Small retailers unable to absorb costs. Consumer spending constrained. Five Below, Dollar Tree closing stores.
Automotive Dealers & Repair
tariff rate
New car prices up $6,000-$12,000 on average. Used car prices surging. Parts costs up 25%. Fewer sales mean fewer dealership and service jobs.
Construction & Housing
tariff rate
Lumber (+39.5%), steel (+25%), cement (+25%), appliances (+30%) tariffs have increased new home costs by $20,000-$40,000. Housing starts declined 15%. Renovation projects delayed.
Technology / Electronics
tariff rate
Electronics tariffs of 30-54% raised consumer costs dramatically. Apple shifted some production but prices still up 20-40%. Enterprise IT spending frozen. Startups facing higher hardware costs.
Shipping & Logistics
tariff rate
Trade volume declined 12-18% at major ports. Container throughput at LA/Long Beach down 20%. Trucking, warehousing, and freight companies cutting staff. Port of Savannah reducing shifts.
US Bourbon & Spirits
tariff rate
EU and other retaliatory tariffs of 25-50% on bourbon crushed exports. Kentucky distillers report 30% export decline. Jack Daniel's and Maker's Mark scaling back production.
Restaurant & Food Service
tariff rate
Food ingredient costs up 10-25% (avocados, seafood, olive oil, cheese). Restaurants cutting staff and raising menu prices 12-20%. Fast food chains reducing menu options.
E-Commerce / DTC Brands
tariff rate
End of de minimis for China crushed Temu, Shein, and small DTC brands. Shipping costs up 40-60% for small packages. Many Amazon third-party sellers shut down.
Tourism & Hospitality
tariff rate
Anti-American sentiment and retaliatory policies reduced inbound tourism 15-20%. European and Canadian visitors down sharply. Hotel occupancy rates declining in major cities.
Mixed Impact
Industries with both winners and losers within the sector
Domestic Solar Manufacturing
tariff rate
Tariffs helped First Solar and domestic panel makers gain share. But 80% of US solar industry is installation — higher panel costs slowed deployment, causing net job losses across the sector.
Pharmaceutical Manufacturing
tariff rate
10% tariffs on imported APIs and generics from India/China are slowly encouraging US pharma manufacturing, but raising drug costs in the near term. Insulin and generic prices up 8-15%.
US Oil & Gas
tariff rate
10% tariff on Canadian oil slightly benefits US producers but raises refinery input costs. Gulf Coast refiners designed for heavy Canadian crude face higher costs. Gas prices up 15-25¢/gallon.
Key Takeaways
Protection works — for protected industries
Steel, aluminum, autos, and textiles have genuinely added jobs and capacity behind tariff walls.
Reshoring is real but slow
Semiconductor fabs and furniture factories are expanding, but it takes years to build capacity.
Downstream losses dwarf upstream gains
For every steel job gained, ~5 jobs are lost in industries that use steel as an input — construction, auto repair, manufacturing.
Retaliation devastates exporters
Agriculture, bourbon, and tourism are collateral damage — punished by foreign governments targeting politically sensitive products.
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